Global Economic Prospects The Turning economie 2016/2017 PDF the Tide? 1 percent in both 2017 and 2018, global growth is expected to decelerate over the next two years as global slack dissipates, major central banks remove policy accommodation, and the recovery in commodity exporters matures.
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Global growth is expected to edge down over the next two years, as global slack dissipates, trade and investment moderate, and financing conditions tighten. In EMDEs, growth in commodity importers is expected to remain robust, while the rebound in commodity exporters is projected to mature. Regional Outlooks Growth in EMDEs is projected to reach 4. 5 percent in 2018, before stabilizing at 4.
Growth in the region is forecast to ease from 6. 3 percent in 2018 to 6. 1 in 2019, reflecting a slowdown in China that is partly offset by a pickup in the rest of the region. Growth in China is anticipated to slow from 6. 5 percent in 2018 to 6.
3 percent in 2019 as policy support eases and as fiscal policies turn less accommodative. Growth in the region is projected to moderate to an upwardly revised 3. 2 percent in 2018 and edge down to 3. 1 percent in 2019 as a modest recovery among commodity exporting economies is only partially offset by a slowdown among commodity importers. In Turkey, growth is forecast to slow to 4.
5 percent in 2018 and to 4. Growth in the region is projected to accelerate to a downwardly revised 1. 7 percent in 2018 and to 2. 3 percent in 2019, spurred by private consumption and investment. The cyclical recovery underway in Brazil is projected to continue, with growth forecast to be above 2 percent this year and in 2019.
Growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 3 percent in 2018 and to 3. 3 percent in 2019, largely as oil exporters recover from the collapse of oil prices. 1 percent in 2018 and 2. 7 percent in 2019, supported by higher fixed investment.
Growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 6. 9 percent in 2018 and to 7. 1 percent in 2019, mainly as factors holding back growth in India fade. Growth in India is projected to advance 7. Growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 3.
1 percent in 2018 and to 3. 5 percent in 2019, below its long-term average. Nigeria is anticipated to grow by 2. 1 percent this year, as non-oil sector growth remains subdued due to low investment, and at a 2.
Angola is expected to grow by 1. 7 percent in 2018 and 2. Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. As these economies mature and shift towards less commodity-intensive activities, their demand for most commodities may plateau.