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77% Of Economic Activity Lost To Social Distancing Is Back, But An Economic Recovery Still Depends On A Vaccine

77% Of Economic Activity Lost To Social Distancing Is Back, But An Economic Recovery Still Depends On A Vaccine

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Third-quarter earnings season officially kicks off this week with big banks, airlines and consumer-staple firms set to report on Tuesday, and though Wall Street’s eyeing improvements over the previous quarter, a sustained economic recovery is still ultimately contingent on widespread vaccination.

Key Facts

Big banks and airlines–two of the coronavirus pandemic’s worst-hit industries–kick off earnings season on Tuesday, with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Delta Air Lines all set to report before the opening bell.

Expect weak and uneven sales growth, and a collapse in profit margins, to characterize third-quarter results, Goldman Sachs said in a weekend note to clients, adding that it still expects election results will have more of an impact on stocks than earnings, and that ultimately, vaccination is “essential for the normalization of the economy.”

Goldman believes there’s a 48% chance that there will be enough doses of an FDA-approved coronavirus vaccine to treat 25 million Americans by the second or third quarters, the most likely time lines, followed closely by 42% odds that this will happen by the first quarter.

Meanwhile, wealth management firm Glenmede said Monday that although it estimates 77% of economic activity lost due to social-distancing mandates has been regained, it only expects earnings will see a small rebound from an “abysmal” second quarter.

Glenmede doesn’t expect earnings will reach new highs until the second half of 2021, which the firm adds is “not so coincidentally aligned with estimates for vaccine delivery.”

In a Monday note to clients, LPL Financial had similar hopes, saying, “The combination of efficiencies gained during the recession,

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India needs to revive jobs that were lost to coronavirus pandemic

India needs to revive jobs that were lost to coronavirus pandemic

SINGAPORE — India needs to restore purchasing power in rural and urban areas for growth to pick up again, an economist said Monday.

To do that, New Delhi has to revive jobs that were lost due to the pandemic through both an existing rural employment guarantee scheme and by introducing a similar program in urban areas where work has dried up, Arun Kumar, an expert on India’s informal economy, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”

“What the government should do really is that the large number of people who’ve lost work, it needs to revive that,” he said

“So therefore it needs to pump in purchasing power into the rural areas, through the rural employment guarantee scheme, and start an urban guarantee scheme because a lot of people who are returning to urban areas are also not finding work,” he said, adding that the services sector is not carrying the same amount of economic weight as before the pandemic.

“Unless the demand is put into the economy, (growth is) not going to really pick up even if you allow industries to reopen,” he said. Kumar also explained that consumer confidence is likely to remain low due to lingering uncertainty as the festive season approaches.

During festive seasons, Indians typically gather in large crowds at places of worships and at shopping malls, especially during Christmas. India now has reported more than 7.1 million cases of coronavirus and over 109,000 people have died. While the number of daily reported cases have recently declined from September highs, there are worries that the figure could jump during the festive period.

The unemployment rate in India was about 6.7% in September, down from the April high of 23.5%, according to data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.

Green shoots emerging

For the three months from April

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‘My father has lost a fortune’

‘My father has lost a fortune’

Eric Trump defended his father’s business dealings in response a New York Times article published on Saturday that unveiled reported White House favoritism toward hundreds of companies, lobbying groups and foreign leaders who stayed at President Trump’s commercial properties.



Eric Trump wearing a suit and tie: Eric Trump on new NYT analysis of father's taxes: 'My father has lost a fortune'


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Eric Trump on new NYT analysis of father’s taxes: ‘My father has lost a fortune’

The newspaper reported that the president used his political position to create new, more lucrative forms of income through his hotels and golf courses.

“We’ve lost a fortune. My father has lost a fortune running for president. He doesn’t care. He wanted to do what was right. The last thing I can tell you Donald Trump needs in the world is this job. He wakes up in the morning, and he has to fight you, and he has to fight the entire media. He has to fight the Democrats, and he gets punched in the head every single day,” Eric Trump told Jonathan Karl of ABC’s “This Week.”

Karl quickly interjected, asking for a response that directly addressed the claims made by the Times. Eric Trump instead called into question former Vice President Joe Biden’s finances.

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“Go Google Biden’s house right now and tell me if you think that a person who’s been in government for 47 years can afford that mansion on the water in Wilmington, Del.,” he said. Both Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), released their tax returns right before the first presidential debate.

When

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Eric Trump on new NYT analysis of father’s taxes: ‘My father has lost a fortune’

Eric Trump on new NYT analysis of father’s taxes: ‘My father has lost a fortune’

Eric TrumpEric Frederick TrumpSunday shows preview: Trump, top Republicans recover from COVID-19; stimulus bill remains in limbo Eric Trump claims his father ‘literally saved Christianity’ Eric Trump suggests clear podiums for presidential debates to avoid notes MORE defended his father’s business dealings in response a New York Times article published on Saturday that unveiled reported White House favoritism toward hundreds of companies, lobbying groups and foreign leaders who stayed at President TrumpDonald John TrumpNorth Korea unveils large intercontinental ballistic missile at military parade Trump no longer considered a risk to transmit COVID-19, doctor says New ad from Trump campaign features Fauci MORE‘s commercial properties.

The newspaper reported that the president used his political position to create new, more lucrative forms of income through his hotels and golf courses.

“We’ve lost a fortune. My father has lost a fortune running for president. He doesn’t care. He wanted to do what was right. The last thing I can tell you Donald Trump needs in the world is this job. He wakes up in the morning, and he has to fight you, and he has to fight the entire media. He has to fight the Democrats, and he gets punched in the head every single day,” Eric Trump told Jonathan Karl of ABC’s “This Week.”

Karl quickly interjected, asking for a response that directly addressed the claims made by the Times. Eric Trump instead called into question former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenDemocratic poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing

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Even as the Economy Grew, More Children Lost Health Insurance

Even as the Economy Grew, More Children Lost Health Insurance

The share of children with health coverage in the United States fell for the third consecutive year in 2019, according to census data, after decades of increases.

The decline occurred during a period of economic growth — before the coronavirus pandemic caused broad job losses that might have cost many more Americans their health insurance.

A report Friday by the Georgetown Center for Children and Families found that the ranks of uninsured children grew the most in Texas and Florida, and that Latino children were disproportionately affected. Nationally, the number of children without health insurance rose by 320,000 last year alone, to a total of nearly 4.4 million children, the report found.

“What’s so troubling about this data is we were making so much progress as a country,” said Joan Alker, the center’s executive director and an author of the report. “And now that progress is clearly reversing.”

The picture since the start of the pandemic is less clear. Many families have lost jobs that came with health coverage, which could increase the number of children without insurance. But national enrollment in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) has also swelled, aided by temporary policies to prevent families from losing coverage during the emergency. More current estimates for the uninsured rates among children will take time.

In recent years, falling enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP drove the overall changes, according to the report. Although those programs for low- and middle-income children are primarily managed by state governments, Trump administration policies could be playing a role: The administration has encouraged states to check eligibility more often, which advocacy groups say has caused many families to lose coverage because of paperwork errors and missed deadlines.

And the administration’s policies on immigrant families have caused some to end enrollment for their

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