Browsed by
Tag: MultiYear

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company: An Undervalued Market Leader With A Multi-Year Growth Runway (NYSE:TSM)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company: An Undervalued Market Leader With A Multi-Year Growth Runway (NYSE:TSM)

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) is the world’s first and largest dedicated semiconductor foundry. It is also the lead player with a market share estimate of between 51.5% and 53.9%. In distant second place is Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) (OTC:SSNNF), with an estimated 17.4% to 18.8% share of the market. What makes TSMC unique is that it has managed to stay ahead of the pack since it was founded in 1987, and it continues to invest heavily in advanced wafer technologies and processes to maintain its lead and strengthen its position in a growing segment.

Source: Statista

How Big is the Foundry Market and How Fast is TMSC Growing?

The global semiconductor foundry market is projected to grow from around $42 billion in 2019 to over $62 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 6.75%.

By comparison, TSMC grew its Q2-20 revenue by 28.9% and H1-20 revenue by 35.2%, both over their prior periods in terms of NT$ (New Taiwan dollars.) Although there was a prolonged decline until Q1-19 in quarterly YoY revenue growth, positive growth returned in Q2-19 and double-digit YoY revenue growth has been reported since Q3-19 in NT$ terms. It’s clear that TSMC is outperforming the overall market by a significant margin in recent quarters, specifically in H1-20.

Source: AnandTech

As of H1-20, TSMC had the highest EUV or Extreme Ultraviolet installed base at 50%, as well as 60% of global wafer capacity, which shows its dominance of the semiconductor foundry market.

Short-term Growth Indicators

H2-20 is also shaping up to be a period of strong revenue growth, and there are a couple of reasons for this:

First of all, Apple, Inc. (AAPL) has tapped TSMC’s entire 5nm capacity for its A14 Bionic chip in the upcoming iPhone 12 and other devices, in addition to future

Read the rest
Natural Gas Market: Production Falls To A New Multi-Year Low

Natural Gas Market: Production Falls To A New Multi-Year Low

The Weather

Last week

Last week (ending October 2), the number of cooling degree days (CDDs) increased by 6.9% w-o-w (from 33 to 35). At the same time, the number of heating degree days (HDDs) surged by 81.5% w-o-w (from 15 to 26). We estimate that total “energy demand” (as measured in total degree days, or TDDs) was as much as 26.5% below last year’s level but only 1.1% below the 30-year average.

This week

This week (ending October 9), the weather conditions have cooled down substantially in the contiguous United States. We estimate that the number of nationwide CDDs will drop by 20.4% w-o-w (from 35 to 28), while the number of HDDs should rise by 22.1% (from 26 to 32). Total average daily consumption of natural gas (in the contiguous United States) should be somewhere between 70 bcf/d and 72 bcf/d. Total “energy demand” (measured in TDDs) should drop by 10.2% y-o-y, while the deviation from the norm will remain in the negative territory (-8.4%).

Next week

Next week (ending October 16), the weather conditions are expected to warm up, but only slightly. The number of nationwide CDDs is currently projected to edge up by 4.2% w-o-w (from 28 to 29), while the number of HDDs should remain relatively unchanged (at 32). However, total “energy demand” (measured in TDDs) should still decline in annual terms (-24.6%), while the deviation from the norm will remain negative (-13.1%) (see the chart below).

Source: Bluegold Research estimates and calculations

The latest numerical weather prediction models (Wednesday’s short-range 00z runs) agree that, over the next 15 days, TDDs should remain below the norm (on average) but should continue to trend upward – see the chart below. However, there is currently a minor disagreement between the models in terms of scale: the latest

Read the rest