With less than a month until Election Day, Democrats are picking up momentum toward winning the Senate majority: Challengers are outraising Republican incumbents, and they are leading in polls. They’ve been helped along by Democrat Joe Biden’s widening lead over President Donald Trump, and some Senate Republicans seeking to distance themselves at the last minute from Trump, after spending years backing him.
But anything could happen. Like this: the revelation of an affair involving the Democratic nominee in one of the most pivotal states, North Carolina, as many voters there are casting ballots. And an increase in mail voting carries with it the risk that voters who don’t fill out their ballots correctly won’t be able to vote at all.
Democrats need a net gain of at least four Senate seats to win the majority, or a Biden presidency and three net wins, which would give the vice president the deciding vote in any ties.
Democrats have a chance in a dozen of the 14 races on this list, but some are in solid Republican territory. We removed the reelection campaign of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., from our rankings – he’s ahead of Democratic challenger Amy McGrath despite the tens of millions of dollars she’s raised to make it competitive.
Here are the top races most likely to flip parties, categorized and ranked from most to least likely.
– More likely to flip than not: Alabama, Colorado and Arizona.
1. Alabama (Democratic-held): There are no changes to the top of our list. Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala., remains the most vulnerable senator of 2020. He’s running for reelection in one of the most pro-Trump states in the nation. And unlike in 2017, he’s not going up against a seriously flawed Republican opponent. Former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville