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The polls are wrong. The U.S. presidential race is a near dead heat, this A.I. ‘sentiment analysis’ tool says

The polls are wrong. The U.S. presidential race is a near dead heat, this A.I. ‘sentiment analysis’ tool says

An analysis of the emotions being expressed on social media indicates that the upcoming U.S. presidential election may be a much closer contest than many commentators and pollsters believe.



Donald Trump standing in front of a crowd: Photo of President Donald Trump speaking at a recent election campaign rally.


© Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
Photo of President Donald Trump speaking at a recent election campaign rally.

That’s the conclusion of Expert.ai, a company with offices in Modena, Italy, and Rockville, Maryland, that uses an A.I. technique called “sentiment analysis” to understand the emotions being expressed in social media posts.

The company’s analysis puts Democratic candidate Joseph Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, 50.2% to 47.3%, a margin that is much narrower than the double-digit lead that Biden has over Trump in most national opinion polls.

Based on these polls, many political analysts and commentators are expecting that Biden may win a historic landslide. But Expert.ai’s A.I.-based analysis indicates the race may be much tighter than these human experts are expecting.

Expert.ai’s political forecasting model was successful in predicting that the U.K. would vote to leave the European Union in 2016. And academic research has shown that similar social media sentiment analysis would have better predicted Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election than polling data.

Trump was the focus of far more social media activity than Biden, accounting for almost 60% of all the posts Expert.ai analyzed, compared to slightly less than 17% for Biden. But Biden ranked higher in terms of positive emotions such as “success” and “hope,” while Trump scored higher on negative emotions such as “fear” and “hatred.”

The only positive emotion on which Trump scores better than Biden, according to a statement from Expert.ai, is “action.”

Expert.ai’s system looked at 500,000 Twitter posts and other social media comments made over the past week. It uses natural language processing, a form of A.I. that

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Biden will win, polls say. But the stock market is sending a different signal

Biden will win, polls say. But the stock market is sending a different signal

PAUL BRANDUS



a man standing in front of a building


© AFP via Getty Images


With three weeks to go, President Trump’s re-election bid is in trouble. At least that’s what the polls show.

But it’s not what the stock market is signaling. Based on nearly a century’s worth of election-year data, Trump may yet win.

“A rising stock market tends to be a ratification of the present policies being satisfying to the investing public.” — Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivative strategist at BTIG

Here’s the research, and it is compelling: Since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 Index (SPX) of the largest U.S. stocks has risen in the three months prior to a presidential election, the party that controlled the White House won 90% of the time.

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“If you think about it intuitively, it makes sense,” says Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivative strategist for the investment firm BTIG who compiled the data. “Because a rising stock market tends to be a ratification of the present policies being satisfying to the investing public.”

History lines up squarely behind Emanuel. In 1928, for example, President Calvin Coolidge, a Republican, chose to retire, but stocks rose between August and November. It was the last full year of the Roaring ’20s and helped lift the new GOP standard bearer, Herbert Hoover, into the White House.

Four years later, the reverse occurred. The Great Depression, which began in the fall of 1929, dragged down stocks — including between August and November 1932 — and Hoover was crushed by Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt.

In fact, there have been six presidential years since 1928 when the S&P 500 fell in the three months before election day. All six times, the party in the White House lost.

Video: Biden campaign resuming negative ads against President Trump (FOX News)

Biden campaign resuming negative

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