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The polls are wrong. The U.S. presidential race is a near dead heat, this A.I. ‘sentiment analysis’ tool says

The polls are wrong. The U.S. presidential race is a near dead heat, this A.I. ‘sentiment analysis’ tool says

An analysis of the emotions being expressed on social media indicates that the upcoming U.S. presidential election may be a much closer contest than many commentators and pollsters believe.



Donald Trump standing in front of a crowd: Photo of President Donald Trump speaking at a recent election campaign rally.


© Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
Photo of President Donald Trump speaking at a recent election campaign rally.

That’s the conclusion of Expert.ai, a company with offices in Modena, Italy, and Rockville, Maryland, that uses an A.I. technique called “sentiment analysis” to understand the emotions being expressed in social media posts.

The company’s analysis puts Democratic candidate Joseph Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, 50.2% to 47.3%, a margin that is much narrower than the double-digit lead that Biden has over Trump in most national opinion polls.

Based on these polls, many political analysts and commentators are expecting that Biden may win a historic landslide. But Expert.ai’s A.I.-based analysis indicates the race may be much tighter than these human experts are expecting.

Expert.ai’s political forecasting model was successful in predicting that the U.K. would vote to leave the European Union in 2016. And academic research has shown that similar social media sentiment analysis would have better predicted Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election than polling data.

Trump was the focus of far more social media activity than Biden, accounting for almost 60% of all the posts Expert.ai analyzed, compared to slightly less than 17% for Biden. But Biden ranked higher in terms of positive emotions such as “success” and “hope,” while Trump scored higher on negative emotions such as “fear” and “hatred.”

The only positive emotion on which Trump scores better than Biden, according to a statement from Expert.ai, is “action.”

Expert.ai’s system looked at 500,000 Twitter posts and other social media comments made over the past week. It uses natural language processing, a form of A.I. that

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Dollar holds gains as uncertainty weighs on market sentiment

Dollar holds gains as uncertainty weighs on market sentiment

TOKYO (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar held on to gains against most currencies on Wednesday as renewed questions about a coronavirus vaccine and lack of an agreement on additional U.S. fiscal stimulus prompted a shift to safer assets.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken at the Bank of Taiwan in Taipei November 11, 2010. REUTERS/Nicky Loh

The yuan was little changed versus the dollar after the central bank’s daily fixing of the yuan’s mid-point was largely in line with estimates, suggesting authorities have paused their attempts to rein in the currency.

The euro and British pound are likely to extend declines, analysts said, as a return of restrictions on economic activity in Europe and Britain to battle a second wave of coronavirus infections unnerves investors.

Currency moves, however, are likely to be subdued as the U.S. presidential election looms on Nov. 3, but analysts said sentiment is leaning against riskier bets, which should support the dollar in the coming days.

“Many factors are pointing to more upside for the dollar,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“U.S. stimulus may not come until after the election. The People’s Bank of China is halting the yuan’s rise. There’s no reason to buy the euro, and there are a lot of euro longs that need to be unwound.”

The dollar last stood at $1.1744 per euro EUR=D3, holding on to a 0.6% gain from the previous session.

The pound GBP=D3 traded at $1.2932, nursing a 1% loss from Tuesday.

Sterling also took a hit due to worries about little progress in trade talks between Britain and the European Union and the chance the Bank of England will adopt negative interest rates.

Risk appetite has weakened after Johnson & Johnson JNJ.N said on Tuesday

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Bank Earnings Can’t Lift Sentiment

Bank Earnings Can’t Lift Sentiment





Duration: 01:59

Here’s why stocks couldn’t gain much traction Tuesday.

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Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc (SC): Hedge Fund Sentiment Unchanged

Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc (SC): Hedge Fund Sentiment Unchanged

We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, which is why imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, professional investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn’t mean that they don’t have occasional colossal losses; they do. However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc (NYSE:SC) and determine whether hedge funds skillfully traded this stock.

Hedge fund interest in Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc (NYSE:SC) shares was flat at the end of last quarter. This is usually a negative indicator. Our calculations also showed that SC isn’t among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds (click for Q2 rankings and see the video for a quick look at the top 5 stocks). At the end of this article we will also compare SC to other stocks including Bunge Limited (NYSE:BG), Aluminum Corp. of China Limited (NYSE:ACH), and Store Capital Corporation (NYSE:STOR) to get a better sense of its popularity. Video: Watch our video about the top 5 most popular hedge fund stocks.

To most stock holders, hedge funds are assumed to be worthless, outdated financial tools of years past. While there are more than 8000 funds with their doors open at the moment, Our experts hone in on the elite of this group, approximately 850 funds. It is estimated that this group of investors orchestrate the majority of the smart money’s total asset base, and by watching their highest performing picks, Insider Monkey has figured out a few investment strategies

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Sentiment Speaks: This Is What The Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election

Sentiment Speaks: This Is What The Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election

While reading the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.

I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is that social mood directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.”

The basic premise is that when people feel good they engage in positive actions, and vice versa. But, that really is an overly simplistic perspective of the theory. Ultimately, it suggests that biological responses have more to do with the mass sentiment as compared to exogenous events. Rather, exogenous events are actually caused by the mass sentiment of the public. Moreover, it suggests that mass sentiment directs our stock market in addition to causing exogenous events. Therefore, viewed from this perspective, the common understanding of causation for market direction is completely opposite of that which most believe. And, this premise is supported by many studies performed over the last 30 years.

I think it is best summed up within a paper entitled “Large Financial Crashes,” published in 1997 in Physica A., a publication of the European Physical Society:

“Stock markets are fascinating structures with analogies to what is arguably the most complex dynamical system found in natural sciences, i.e., the human mind. Instead of the usual interpretation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in which traders extract and incorporate consciously (by their action) all information contained in market prices, we propose that the market as a whole

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