Browsed by
Tag: Show

Sage documents show how scientists felt sidelined by economic considerations

Sage documents show how scientists felt sidelined by economic considerations

The government’s Sage committee of scientific experts urged ministers to impose a circuit breaker lockdown on 21 September, documents have shown.



Boris Johnson in a suit and tie: Photograph: Toby Melville/AFP/Getty Images


© Provided by The Guardian
Photograph: Toby Melville/AFP/Getty Images

What is unusual about these Sage documents?

The timing of their release, for a start. In the interests of transparency (in response to pressure) the government has been releasing Sage minutes around lunchtime on a Friday for many months. These documents were published at 8.20pm on a Monday, within an hour of the prime minister’s press conference in which he described the new three-tier system of restrictions on areas with high numbers of Covid infections. That makes them look very like a dissenting opinion.

What do they say?

The minutes of the Sage meeting on 21 September show the experts wanted a dramatic increase in restrictions across the country to check the alarming rise in infections, warning at that point that the number of cases was doubling every seven days and hospitalisations had begun to increase. A package of measures was needed, they said, to include:

• a “circuit-breaker” lockdown of a couple of weeks.

• advice to work from home for all who could.

• a ban on household mixing in homes.

Video: Government ‘ignored scientists’ advice’ on lockdown last month (PA Media)

Government ‘ignored scientists’ advice’ on lockdown last month

UP NEXT

UP NEXT

• closure of all bars, cafes, restaurants, indoor gyms and personal services such as hairdressers.

• all university and college teaching to be online.

Were they concerned about the impact on people’s lives of more draconian measures?

Yes. They said they would all have costs in terms of health and wellbeing and many would have most impact on the poorest. Measures would be needed to mitigate this, and some could be brought in

Read the rest
Dow rises 161 points as economic-stimulus talks show progress

Dow rises 161 points as economic-stimulus talks show progress



a man standing in front of a computer: Xinhua/Wang Ying/ Getty Images


© Xinhua/Wang Ying/ Getty Images
Xinhua/Wang Ying/ Getty Images

  • US stocks moved higher Friday on continued hope that negotiations on fiscal stimulus will lead to a deal before the election.
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continued negotiations, trying to find middle ground on the size and scope of a new deal.
  • President Donald Trump this week reversed his stance on a stimulus deal and said he now favors a large deal.
  • “Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along,” Trump tweeted on Friday. “Go Big!”
  • Watch major indexes update live here.

US stocks moved higher on Friday as negotiations continued on another round of fiscal stimulus to combat the economic decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had been trying to make a deal before the November election, but President Donald Trump said earlier this week that negotiations were over.

Fast-forward to Friday, and the talks are back on.

“Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along,” Trump tweeted on Friday. “Go Big!”

Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. ET market close on Friday:

Read more: Fund manager Brandon Nelson is tripling his benchmark in 2020 with ‘less-discovered’ companies that become big winners. Here are 3 themes and 9 stocks he’s betting on.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Friday morning that a stimulus deal before the election was unlikely. But shortly after McConnell spoke, the White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Trump had raised his offer to a $1.8 trillion deal from $1.6 trillion. House Democrats recently passed a $2.2 trillion bill.

“I would like to see a bigger stimulus package, frankly, than either the Democrats or the Republicans are offering,” Trump said in a radio interview with Rush Limbaugh on Friday.

Video: White House

Read the rest
The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

(Bloomberg Markets) — There’s always growth somewhere, even amid a pandemic that has claimed more than a million lives and trillions of dollars of business activity. Below, Bloomberg Markets examines the data to find this year’s economic winners—and some hope for the years ahead.

Lost Years

The world’s most influential economies will be feeling the pandemic’s effects for years. Eight members of the Group of 20 will have a smaller gross domestic product in 2022 than they did in 2019, according to forecasts by Bloomberg Economics. Just six will have grown more than 2% in that time.



chart


© Bloomberg


Growth Disappears From Most of the World

In 2020 almost all economies on the planet will shrink, according to a World Bank forecast. By contrast, in 2019 almost 4 out of 5 grew. It’s not an exaggeration to say this year has surpassed every recession in modern history.



diagram


© Bloomberg


Fits and Starts for Global Trade

A stuttering recovery may hinge on whether the electronics industry rebound survives U.S. bans on Chinese technology.



chart, waterfall chart


© Bloomberg


Expanding in the Face of Historic Contraction

Not all nations have been equally hurt. In June the World Bank identified 30 emerging-market and developing economies it expects to grow this year. Some are recovering faster; others have idiosyncratic growth drivers or are less exposed to external shocks.



diagram


© Bloomberg


In the U.S., Alternative and High-Frequency Data Show a Slow and Patchy Recovery

Gauges of activity suggest the U.S. is in the midst of a gradual recovery, with improvement across a variety of indicators in August and September. Still, uneven progress in controlling the virus has left the economy far below its pre-pandemic output.





© Bloomberg


Comebacks Around the World

Driven largely by China’s rebound, emerging markets have returned to form at a faster pace than developed

Read the rest
Asia Business Leaders Show Signs Of Optimism, But Expect Layoffs To Continue

Asia Business Leaders Show Signs Of Optimism, But Expect Layoffs To Continue

Chinese astrology has it that 2020 is a “metal rat” year, and is associated with turbulence. Covid-19 has certainly provided a quantum of it. With a steep market dive in the first quarter, and sharp worldwide economic contraction, Asian business has had a rough ride. As star signs go, 2020 has so far lived up to its ratty astrological reputation.

The results of a survey conducted from August to September of Hong Kong-based Asia Business Council’s members, who are the chairmen and CEOs of some of Asia’s leading multi-national companies, collectively valued at nearly $3 trillion, and with some 3 million employees, offer insights against the turbulent backdrop of a year dominated by Covid-19. With a response rate of 83% (58 out of 70 members), the results showed a latent optimism and the confidence to re-tool investment focus. Though the outlook for job growth remains uncertain, not surprisingly, these leaders ranked public health and geopolitics as top concerns for their businesses.

A lot of numbers follow here, but they are very telling. When asked their outlook for business conditions in Asia over the next 12 months, and in spite of significant declines in their own revenues, half said they expect to see an improvement, while 33% expect conditions to worsen. Though not a table-pounding endorsement, this is a significant change from 2019, when 55% expected conditions to worsen.

Only 16% of members foresee a prolonged downturn or depression, and just 5% anticipate inflation. The wide distribution of an effective vaccine for Covid-19 is viewed as a pre-condition for a return to pre-pandemic economic levels–an opinion expressed by 91%—that speaks well of the latent, “coiled-spring” potential of

Read the rest