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The stock market is sending signals that a Biden-led blue wave is getting less certain, says one Wall Street strategist

The stock market is sending signals that a Biden-led blue wave is getting less certain, says one Wall Street strategist

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  • While the polls suggest a blue wave victory is in reach for Democrats this November, the stock market isn’t so sure, according to a note from Evercore ISI.
  • Wall Street strategists have been forecasting that a blue wave would likely be positive for stocks on hopes of a large stimulus deal shortly after the election, which would help spur a surge in value and cyclical stocks.
  • But this week’s rotation out of value and into tech suggests that chances of a blue wave in November are less likely, according to the note.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Wall Street is increasingly expecting a blue wave victory for Democrats this November after the polls close, which would likely lead to the reflation trade: a surge in cyclical and value stocks at the expense of technology and growth stocks.

But recent trading activity in the stock market suggests odds of a blue wave are less likely, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore ISI. 

Specifically, this week’s rotation out of small cap and value and into large cap and growth could be chalked up to declining odds of a Democratic sweep, according to the note.

The firm pointed to the October surprise in North Carolina’s Senate race between Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham as evidence for declining chances of Democrats overtaking the Senate.

“The Democratic ‘dream fiscal program’ odds are lower,” Evercore said as explanation for what is driving the rotation back into tech.

Read more: Jeff James has crushed the market this year thanks to a stock pick that’s soared 1,155%. He shares another bet he expects to deliver similar returns – and lays out 3 additional opportunities in tech.

The firm did concede that other factors could be moving tech stocks, including excitement

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A Wall Street chief strategist says US lawmakers need a deal on fiscal aid – even a small one will help save consumer spending

A Wall Street chief strategist says US lawmakers need a deal on fiscal aid – even a small one will help save consumer spending

FILE PHOTO: Traders gather at the booth that trades Abbott Laboratories on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, December 10, 2012.   REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Traders gather at the booth that trades Abbott Laboratories on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange


  • Crossmark Global Investment’s chief market strategist Victoria Fernandez told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” Tuesday US lawmakers need to decide on a fiscal package, even if it is smaller in size, to save consumer spending.
  • She said consumers have almost spent their consumer checks which is worrisome going into the holiday season. 
  • “Even if it is a smaller number, or a one-time check, it is going to give support to that consumer as we go into the last quarter of the year and that is where you need to start looking at your portfolio to balance that out a little bit,” she said. 
  • She said investors should look at a combination of growth and value stocks, as well as different segments of the financial services sector to weather uncertainty. 
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

US lawmakers need to decide on a fiscal stimulus package, even if it is a smaller one, to prop up consumer spending, particularly going into the holiday shopping period, Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments told CNBC’s”Trading Nation” Tuesday 

“We really need that consumer to hang in there. For that to happen, we will need to see another round of stimulus, even if it is a smaller deal, or not the $600 we saw before,” she said. “Even if it is a smaller number, or a one-time check, it is going to give support to that consumer as we go into the last quarter of the year and that is where you need to start looking at your portfolio, to balance that out a little bit.”

With around 10 million Americans still out of work, many consumers will have long since spent their

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Creative making space opening on Monroe Street

Creative making space opening on Monroe Street

Starting Tuesday, The Mad Makery will offer private art classes, small workshops and DIY craft kits.
copper clip with three photos
Photo courtesy of Melanie Gehrke
A completed white copper clip kit

The Mad Makery is opening a brand new space Tuesday on Monroe Street after operating largely online only since launching in 2018.

Owner Melanie Gehrke started by creating craft kits only available online. All of the items needed to complete a project were included in a kit. She has also hosted workshops at various local businesses prior to the pandemic.

Before the pandemic began, Gehrke had announced plans to open a retail location on Junction Road, but with the uncertainty of COVID-19, she decided to no longer open the larger space.

She’s now set to open a new retail space at 2528 Monroe Street, where she will offer private art lessons for children, DIY kits and small group workshops for adults.

Gehrke is a former elementary school art teacher, so will customize and create classes for children interested in learning a skill.

The Mad Makery is requiring everyone to wear masks in the studio. Tables, chairs and tools will be sanitized after all customers. They will also have contactless temperature checks and a COVID-19 screening questionnaire.

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New Study Reveals 450% Surge in Consumers Texting Main Street Businesses, Restaurants and Salons During COVID-19 Pandemic

New Study Reveals 450% Surge in Consumers Texting Main Street Businesses, Restaurants and Salons During COVID-19 Pandemic

Numa research sees significant boost in conversational commerce

Numa, a leading answering service powered by artificial intelligence (AI) that ensures businesses never miss a call or text, today released its latest research on consumer engagement with Main Street businesses. Its infographic, “COVID-19 Changes How Customers Shop at Main Street Businesses,” illustrates surging demand for conversational commerce among consumers and how businesses are evolving communications to service customers in stores and off premises.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201012005156/en/

STUDY REVEALS 450% SURGE IN CONSUMERS TEXTING MAIN STREET BUSINESSES, RESTAURANTS AND SALONS DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC. Numa research sees significant boost in conversational commerce. (Graphic: Business Wire)

“Our data, based on actual product usage data from small and medium-sized companies, indicates a shift in customer behavior prompted in large part by the global pandemic and shuttering of businesses,” said Numa Founder and CEO Tasso Roumeliotis. “Even before the crisis, customers had shown a preference for texting with businesses in addition to calling, but over the last several months there has been a dramatic increase in virtual engagement and a desire to communicate across multiple channels.”

Businesses today are not only struggling to meet consumer demand but also to adapt to new operational requirements that bring contactless solutions into the equation. With 98% of all text messages opened and 95% responded to within 3 minutes of being delivered, texting is one of the easiest and most immediate ways for businesses to strengthen consumer relationships—even from afar. Add to that the ability to accommodate curbside pickup and 24/7 communication, which mitigates the impact of limited staff and time away from stores, and businesses immediately possess powerful tools to take them beyond surviving to thriving.

After a deep analysis of user behavior, Numa findings include an increase in

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Why the stock market’s sharp rally off March lows is even stronger than in seems, according to one Wall Street chief strategist

Why the stock market’s sharp rally off March lows is even stronger than in seems, according to one Wall Street chief strategist



a group of people standing in front of a computer: Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images


© Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images
Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images

  • The market’s leadership is wider than perceived and consists of more than just the largest tech stocks, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, said Friday.
  • While cyclical sectors trail the S&P 500 by 5% on a market-weighted basis, they exceed the benchmark on an equal-weighted basis, Paulsen highlighted.
  • Similarly, the S&P 500’s outperformance over the small-cap-focused S&P 600 is halved when market weighting isn’t taken into account.
  • Strong gains from tech giants “distorted many traditional market signals” and possibly shifted investors’ views of the market, the strategist added.
  • Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.

Cyclical and small-cap stocks aren’t getting the credit they deserve for the market’s rapid recovery, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, said Friday.

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Tech giants played an undeniably large role in lifting indexes from their March lows. Crowding in mega-caps hit dot-com-era levels, and their outperformance led the Nasdaq to be the first major index to erase its pandemic-induced losses. Strategists warned of a bubble forming in the market and that leadership in the months-long rally was dangerously thin.

Yet certain gauges suggest the bull market’s drivers are more varied than just the popular tech giants. While cyclical sectors trail the S&P 500 by roughly 5% on a market-weighted basis, they’ve made a full recovery from the March trough and now outpace the benchmark on an equal-weighted basis, Paulsen said.

Read more: ‘The largest financial crisis in history’: A 47-year market vet says the COVID-19 crash was merely a ‘fake-out sell-off’ — and warns of an 80% stock plunge fraught with bank failures and bankruptcies



chart: Leuthold Group


© Leuthold Group
Leuthold Group

“Cyclicals have not done as well as the FAANGs — few stocks have — but relative to

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