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Guggenheim’s Minerd says the market is betting on a Joe Biden victory, and a Democratic sweep will be best for stocks in the short run

Guggenheim’s Minerd says the market is betting on a Joe Biden victory, and a Democratic sweep will be best for stocks in the short run



Scott Minerd wearing a suit and tie: Lucy Nicholson/Reuters


© Lucy Nicholson/Reuters
Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

  • Scott Minerd spoke on a panel at the Milken Institute 2020 Global Conference on Monday and said that the markets are betting on a Joe Biden win. 
  • The Guggenheim chief investment officer explained that stocks that would flourish under a Biden win, like those in alternative energy, are flourishing right now. 
  • He added that a Democratic sweep would most likely be the best for the stock market in the short run and not the “disaster” that many are forecasting.

Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd said on Monday that the market is betting on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to win the election.

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During a panel at the Milken Institute 2020 Global Conference, the chief investment officer said stocks that would flourish under a Biden administration are performing much better right now than stocks that would boom under Trump.

Minerd cited alternative energy companies as an example of stocks that are gearing up for a Biden win. The Invesco Cleantech ETF is trading at a record high, and the First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund is up almost 100% year-to-date. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF is trading at its highest level since 2010, and the Invesco Solar ETF is at its highest point since 2011.

Read more: Morgan Stanley lays out its 5 favorite trades for investors looking to dominate a looming V-shaped recovery, even if a stimulus deal takes until 2021

Minerd also said that the resolution of the election “will be positive for markets,” and reduce the risk premium of who the next president is going to be. 

He added that a Democratic sweep would most likely be the best for the stock market in the short run because there will be “lots of stimulus.” 

“I don’t see it in

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Analysis: Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

Analysis: Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The debate between Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, marred by frequent interruptions and name-calling, did little to enlighten the electorate. But it was enough to turn the consensus on Wall Street toward Biden.

The fractious Sept. 29 faceoff led to a jump in Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump in several national polls, fueling moves in a broad range of assets sensitive to a decisive Democratic victory, from clean energy companies and U.S. govenrment bonds to foreign exchange derivatives that hedge against market volatility.

A second debate – which may be delayed or not take place at all – “is critical for the president, but I don’t think it matters at all to Biden. He can coast to the election,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.

The former vice president opened up a 10-point advantage among likely voters in an Oct. 3 poll by Reuters/Ipsos, a 1 to 2 point increase over his previous lead, following the presidential debate.

Despite the skepticism about opinion polls after Trump’s surprise win in 2016, investors have since increased bets that the Democrat will have a clearcut victory.

“Our highest probability is of a Biden win and a Democratic sweep and that keeps increasing,” said John Briggs, Americas head of strategy at NatWest Markets. “We had some client pushback on that idea but after the debate that turned around quite a bit.”

Graphic: Betting markets : Biden’s lead –

Shares of alternative energy companies, which analysts expect to prosper from policies under a Biden administration, have climbed sharply since the debate.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden gives a thumbs up when asked about how Kamala Harris will do in tonight’s vice-presidential debate, as he arrives

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Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

By April Joyner and David Randall

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The debate between Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, marred by frequent interruptions and name-calling, did little to enlighten the electorate. But it was enough to turn the consensus on Wall Street toward Biden.

The fractious Sept. 29 faceoff led to a jump in Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump in several national polls, fueling moves in a broad range of assets sensitive to a decisive Democratic victory, from clean energy companies and U.S. govenrment bonds to foreign exchange derivatives that hedge against market volatility.

A second debate – which may be delayed or not take place at all – “is critical for the president, but I don’t think it matters at all to Biden. He can coast to the election,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.

The former vice president opened up a 10-point advantage among likely voters in an Oct. 3 poll by Reuters/Ipsos, a 1 to 2 point increase over his previous lead, following the presidential debate.

Despite the skepticism about opinion polls after Trump’s surprise win in 2016, investors have since increased bets that the Democrat will have a clearcut victory.

“Our highest probability is of a Biden win and a Democratic sweep and that keeps increasing,” said John Briggs, Americas head of strategy at NatWest Markets. “We had some client pushback on that idea but after the debate that turned around quite a bit.”

Graphic: Betting markets : Biden’s lead – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/qmyvmbzwdpr/Pasted%20image%201602189822327.png

Shares of alternative energy companies, which analysts expect to prosper from policies under a Biden administration, have climbed sharply since the debate.

In currency markets, bets on post-election volatility are waning – evidence of investors positioning for a strong win for the Democrat. In Treasury markets, a

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