Browsed by
Tag: weeks

Why the market narrative on a November ‘blue wave’ flipped in just 2 weeks and what it means for stocks, according to UBS

Why the market narrative on a November ‘blue wave’ flipped in just 2 weeks and what it means for stocks, according to UBS



Joe Biden wearing a suit and tie: Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee. Getty


© Getty
Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee. Getty

  • The market narrative on what a “blue wave” in November could mean for stocks has flipped over the past two weeks, UBS said in a note on Monday.
  • The prevailing market narrative over the past few months that election victories for Democrats would hurt stocks because of the potential for higher taxes is now dead, according to UBS.
  • Instead, expect stocks to move higher if there’s a blue wave, and don’t be surprised if investors are disappointed if it doesn’t happen, UBS said.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Throughout 2020, the consensus view has been that a Joe Biden victory and a “blue wave” in November would be bad for the stock market because of the potential for higher corporate taxes and more regulation.

Loading...

Load Error

But that market narrative has been flipped on its head in the past two weeks, UBS said in a note on Monday.

Now investors expect that a Biden victory and Democratic sweep in Congress could be a catalyst for a reflation trade, in which cyclical and value stocks trade higher and the US dollar weakens, further helping US stock prices.

The impetus for a change of heart among investors is threefold, according to UBS:

  1. “The inability to pass a major fiscal package prior to the election means that it’s increasingly likely to be the Democrats’ top priority after a Blue Wave outcome.”
  2. Higher taxes will be a 2022 problem for investors, not a 2021 problem.
  3. “Biden’s widening lead in the polls and prediction markets, and along with it the likelihood of a Blue Wave, is reducing election uncertainty,” UBS said, adding that a delayed or contested election would be more unsettling to investors than a Democratic sweep of the White House and Congress.
Read the rest
Here’s why the market narrative on a November blue wave flipped in just 2 weeks, and what it now means for stocks, according to UBS

Here’s why the market narrative on a November blue wave flipped in just 2 weeks, and what it now means for stocks, according to UBS

joe biden
  • The market narrative on what a potential November blue wave could mean for stocks has flipped over the past two weeks, UBS said in a note on Monday.
  • The prevailing market narrative over the past few months that a blue wave election outcome would hurt stocks due to higher taxes is now dead, according to UBS.
  • Instead, expect stocks to move higher if there is a blue wave this November, and don’t be surprised for the potential of investors being disappointed if a blue wave doesn’t happen, UBS said.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Throughout 2020, the consensus view has been that a Joe Biden victory, and a potential “blue wave” in November, would be bad for the stock market because of the potential for higher corporate taxes and more regulation.

But that market narrative has been flipped on its head in the past two weeks, UBS said in a note on Monday.

Now, investors expect a Biden victory and Democratic sweep of Congress this November to serve as a the catalyst for a reflation trade, in which cyclical and value stocks trade higher, and the US dollar weakens, further helping US stock prices.

The impetus for a change of heart among investors regarding a blue wave and its impact on stocks is three-fold, according to UBS:

1. “The inability to pass a major fiscal package prior to the election means that it’s increasingly likely to be the Democrats’ top priority after a Blue Wave outcome,” UBS said.

2. Higher taxes will be a 2022 problem for investors, not a 2021 problem, according to UBS.

3. “Biden’s widening lead in the polls and prediction markets, and along with it the likelihood of a Blue Wave, is reducing election uncertainty,” UBS said, adding that a delayed or

Read the rest
Mitch McConnell says stimulus package ‘unlikely in the next 3 weeks’

Mitch McConnell says stimulus package ‘unlikely in the next 3 weeks’

  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said a coronavirus aid package was “unlikely in the next three weeks” in the run-up to the election.
  • “We do need another rescue package. But the proximity to the election and the differences of opinion about what is needed at this particular juncture are pretty vast,” he said at a Kentucky event.
  • Any deal between the White House and Democrats faces an uphill battle to gain Senate GOP support.
  • Many Republican senators have voiced concern over the swelling budget deficit, which stands at $3.1 trillion.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Friday the passage of an economic stimulus package was improbable in the next few weeks before the election.

“I think the murkiness is a result of the proximity to the election, and everybody kind of trying to elbow for political advantage” he said during a campaign event in Shepherdsville, Kentucky. “I’d like to see us rise above that … but I think that’s unlikely in the next three weeks.”

But McConnell said another federal aid bill was needed.

“We do need another rescue package,” he said. “But the proximity to the election and the differences of opinion about what is needed at this particular juncture are pretty vast.”

The remarks reflect the difficulty a stimulus deal struck between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi faces. President Donald Trump abruptly halted negotiations on a bill on Tuesday, and appeared to restart them only two days later. He called for another round of stimulus checks and aid to airlines and small businesses on Thursday.

Trump on Friday called to “go big” in another coronavirus relief package. 

“Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along,” he wrote in a tweet. “Go Big!”

Read more: This Andreessen Horowitz-backed

Read the rest
Analysis: 28 states have seen increase in new coronavirus cases in past two weeks

Analysis: 28 states have seen increase in new coronavirus cases in past two weeks

Twenty-eight states, as well as Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, have experienced increases in new COVID-19 cases over the past two weeks, a trend that could be treacherous as the flu season approaches.

ABC conducted an analysis that also revealed increases in new daily positivity rate for 25 states, increases on COVID-19 hospitalization in 35 states, and upticks in daily COVID-19 deaths in 18 states and Puerto Rico.

These data contributed to the rise of the seven-day average of new cases in the U.S. to over 44,000 –– the highest it has been since Aug. 21.


US SENATOR TOOK OFF MASK REPEATEDLY ON FLIGHT. HE CHAIRS COMMITTEE THAT OVERSEES AIRLINE SAFETY

HERE ARE THE EFFECTS THE STEROID DEXAMETHASONE COULD BE HAVING ON TRUMP

FAUCI SAYS IT’S ‘OBVIOUS’ HE HASN’T BEEN INVOLVED IN TRUMP’S CARE

FAUCI WARNS TRUMP’S RECOVERY COULD GO INTO REVERSAL


Some of the current hotspots in the U.S. are the Midwest states, including North and South Dakotas, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Nebraska. ABC notes that two states in particular, Montana and South Dakota, recorded their highest single-day increase in new coronavirus cases this week.

Hospitalizations in the Midwest have also hit record highs.

Other regions in the country, like the Northeast and South, are relatively low, although Northeast states are seeing increases in cases, with seven-day averages of new cases hitting the highest numbers seen since June. 

Meanwhile, the South still contributed over 45 percent of the country’s daily regional caseload, averaging 18,000 new cases a day. 

States out west like Montana, Idaho, and Utah have also witnessed increases, with a 26 percent new-case uptick reported over the past three weeks. 

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) recently announced that the state’s health department will be publicly displaying hospital bed capacity and ICU status on Thursday. 

“It’s our actions as

Read the rest
Dow spikes 531 points for best day in 12 weeks on renewed hopes of economic stimulus

Dow spikes 531 points for best day in 12 weeks on renewed hopes of economic stimulus



a man standing in front of a computer: Xinhua/Wang Ying/ Getty Images


© Xinhua/Wang Ying/ Getty Images
Xinhua/Wang Ying/ Getty Images

  • US stocks surged on Wednesday on renewed hope for economic stimulus after President Donald Trump advocated for a piecemeal process of passing stimulus measures.
  • The Dow Jones industrial average’s 1.9% increase was its biggest jump in 12 weeks.
  • Potential individual stimulus measures that President Trump would like to see passed include direct payments of $1,200 to Americans and aid to the airline industry.
  • Trump sent the stock market into a tailspin late Tuesday afternoon after he tweeted that he was calling negotiations off between Democrats and Republicans on another round of fiscal stimulus.
  • Still, minutes from the Fed released on Wednesday showed that Fed officials worries a lack of further fiscal stimulus would threaten the economic recovery.
  • Watch major indexes update live here.

US stocks surged on Wednesday on renewed hope of economic stimulus after President Donald Trump signaled that he is open to piecemeal stimulus, rather than a single trillion-dollar-plus package.

Loading...

Load Error

The willingness for individual stimulus measures comes after Trump torpedoed stimulus negotiations on Tuesday afternoon, tweeting that Democrat’s request for a $2.4 trillion stimulus package was too large and that they were not negotiating in good faith.

That tweet sent stocks lower Tuesday afternoon, reversing its daily gains, as investors soured on the idea of no stimulus being passed prior to the upcoming November election.

But Trump seemed to have reversed course Tuesday night, somewhat. He tweeted that he was open to signing legislation that would give Americans a direct payment of $1,200, in addition to providing aid to the airline industry.

Trump tweeted, “If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?”

Here’s

Read the rest