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Stock-market bets against Nasdaq index hit decade peak

Stock-market bets against Nasdaq index hit decade peak

The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index stands less than 2% from its early September peak, as of late Tuesday trade, reflecting its resurgence from its jaunt into correction territory less than a month ago.

However, rather than betting on continued progress in the popular benchmark that has led the run-up from coronavirus-induced lows, investors are mounting bets that the benchmark continues to be overpriced and faces a fresh collapse in the near-term.

“Somebody, somewhere, still wants to bet against this market,” writes Jason Goepfert, head of SentimenTrader and founder of independent investment research firm Sundial Capital Research, in a Tuesday research note.

Goepfert writes that so-called short interest, or the total number of shares of a particular stock or fund that have been sold short by investors, but haven’t yet been covered or closed out, on stocks trading on the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.10%

rose in the last two weeks of September to around the highest level in 10 years, at around 9.7 billion shares (see chart below expressed as a percentage below a chart of the Nasdaq Composite’s absolute value).


Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader

Of note, Goepfert said some investors view rising short interest as a contrarian sign, one that may signal a bullish trend for the benchmark market, since it also reflects a potential snapback trade for stocks if bearish investors suddenly are forced to unwind their short bets and buyback stocks they have borrowed in their short bets.

However, the SentimenTrader analyst says investors willing to dismiss the current rise in short-term interest, or view it as a potential cause for buying and not caution, do so at their own peril.

As the stock market has surged higher in the aftermath of its swoon back in March, amid the peak of selling precipitated by worries about the economic

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Analysis: Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

Analysis: Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The debate between Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, marred by frequent interruptions and name-calling, did little to enlighten the electorate. But it was enough to turn the consensus on Wall Street toward Biden.

The fractious Sept. 29 faceoff led to a jump in Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump in several national polls, fueling moves in a broad range of assets sensitive to a decisive Democratic victory, from clean energy companies and U.S. govenrment bonds to foreign exchange derivatives that hedge against market volatility.

A second debate – which may be delayed or not take place at all – “is critical for the president, but I don’t think it matters at all to Biden. He can coast to the election,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.

The former vice president opened up a 10-point advantage among likely voters in an Oct. 3 poll by Reuters/Ipsos, a 1 to 2 point increase over his previous lead, following the presidential debate.

Despite the skepticism about opinion polls after Trump’s surprise win in 2016, investors have since increased bets that the Democrat will have a clearcut victory.

“Our highest probability is of a Biden win and a Democratic sweep and that keeps increasing,” said John Briggs, Americas head of strategy at NatWest Markets. “We had some client pushback on that idea but after the debate that turned around quite a bit.”

Graphic: Betting markets : Biden’s lead –

Shares of alternative energy companies, which analysts expect to prosper from policies under a Biden administration, have climbed sharply since the debate.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden gives a thumbs up when asked about how Kamala Harris will do in tonight’s vice-presidential debate, as he arrives

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Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

Investors’ bets on a Democratic sweep grow after Biden debate performance

By April Joyner and David Randall

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The debate between Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, marred by frequent interruptions and name-calling, did little to enlighten the electorate. But it was enough to turn the consensus on Wall Street toward Biden.

The fractious Sept. 29 faceoff led to a jump in Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump in several national polls, fueling moves in a broad range of assets sensitive to a decisive Democratic victory, from clean energy companies and U.S. govenrment bonds to foreign exchange derivatives that hedge against market volatility.

A second debate – which may be delayed or not take place at all – “is critical for the president, but I don’t think it matters at all to Biden. He can coast to the election,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.

The former vice president opened up a 10-point advantage among likely voters in an Oct. 3 poll by Reuters/Ipsos, a 1 to 2 point increase over his previous lead, following the presidential debate.

Despite the skepticism about opinion polls after Trump’s surprise win in 2016, investors have since increased bets that the Democrat will have a clearcut victory.

“Our highest probability is of a Biden win and a Democratic sweep and that keeps increasing,” said John Briggs, Americas head of strategy at NatWest Markets. “We had some client pushback on that idea but after the debate that turned around quite a bit.”

Graphic: Betting markets : Biden’s lead – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/qmyvmbzwdpr/Pasted%20image%201602189822327.png

Shares of alternative energy companies, which analysts expect to prosper from policies under a Biden administration, have climbed sharply since the debate.

In currency markets, bets on post-election volatility are waning – evidence of investors positioning for a strong win for the Democrat. In Treasury markets, a

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