Of the 1,164 investors surveyed by Investing.com, 53% said that if the stock market still looks good by Election Day next month, incumbent Donald Trump will end up winning. And most of them think the market will be better off with Trump then Biden, though there are some major caveats worth pointing out before you think a Biden win a short sellers dream.
Americans head to the polls in less than four weeks. Mail-in ballots, done for the first time this year, suggests that unlike other years throughout history, an outcome won’t be known on election night. The last time that happened was in November 2000 in George W. Bush versus Al Gore.
According to the Investing.com survey, a whopping 90% said that Trump’s catching Covid-19 did not make them nervous enough to change their investing positions.
“The initial downward move was nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction to the dramatic headlines,” says Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com. “As the hours and days progressed it became clear that President Trump was not in a life-threatening situation, easing worries over a sudden deterioration in his health.”
Moreover, 60% said they have no plans to make any changes to their investments ahead of the presidential election. And 86% think there will be a “moderate impact” or a “significant impact” to financial markets once we know who the winner is.
Overall, beyond the election result, Wall Street’s main concern is whether the winner will introduce a fresh round of stimulus. “These are far more important factors likely to influence the market in the coming weeks,” Cohen says.