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65% Of Investors Say Trump Better For Stock Market. Only 16% Say Biden

65% Of Investors Say Trump Better For Stock Market. Only 16% Say Biden

Of the 1,164 investors surveyed by Investing.com, 53% said that if the stock market still looks good by Election Day next month, incumbent Donald Trump will end up winning. And most of them think the market will be better off with Trump then Biden, though there are some major caveats worth pointing out before you think a Biden win a short sellers dream.

Americans head to the polls in less than four weeks. Mail-in ballots, done for the first time this year, suggests that unlike other years throughout history, an outcome won’t be known on election night. The last time that happened was in November 2000 in George W. Bush versus Al Gore.

According to the Investing.com survey, a whopping 90% said that Trump’s catching Covid-19 did not make them nervous enough to change their investing positions.

“The initial downward move was nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction to the dramatic headlines,” says Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com. “As the hours and days progressed it became clear that President Trump was not in a life-threatening situation, easing worries over a sudden deterioration in his health.”

Moreover, 60% said they have no plans to make any changes to their investments ahead of the presidential election. And 86% think there will be a “moderate impact” or a “significant impact” to financial markets once we know who the winner is.

Overall, beyond the election result, Wall Street’s main concern is whether the winner will introduce a fresh round of stimulus. “These are far more important factors likely to influence the market in the coming weeks,” Cohen says.

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Guggenheim’s Minerd says the market is betting on a Joe Biden victory, and a Democratic sweep will be best for stocks in the short run

Guggenheim’s Minerd says the market is betting on a Joe Biden victory, and a Democratic sweep will be best for stocks in the short run



Scott Minerd wearing a suit and tie: Lucy Nicholson/Reuters


© Lucy Nicholson/Reuters
Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

  • Scott Minerd spoke on a panel at the Milken Institute 2020 Global Conference on Monday and said that the markets are betting on a Joe Biden win. 
  • The Guggenheim chief investment officer explained that stocks that would flourish under a Biden win, like those in alternative energy, are flourishing right now. 
  • He added that a Democratic sweep would most likely be the best for the stock market in the short run and not the “disaster” that many are forecasting.

Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd said on Monday that the market is betting on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to win the election.

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During a panel at the Milken Institute 2020 Global Conference, the chief investment officer said stocks that would flourish under a Biden administration are performing much better right now than stocks that would boom under Trump.

Minerd cited alternative energy companies as an example of stocks that are gearing up for a Biden win. The Invesco Cleantech ETF is trading at a record high, and the First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund is up almost 100% year-to-date. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF is trading at its highest level since 2010, and the Invesco Solar ETF is at its highest point since 2011.

Read more: Morgan Stanley lays out its 5 favorite trades for investors looking to dominate a looming V-shaped recovery, even if a stimulus deal takes until 2021

Minerd also said that the resolution of the election “will be positive for markets,” and reduce the risk premium of who the next president is going to be. 

He added that a Democratic sweep would most likely be the best for the stock market in the short run because there will be “lots of stimulus.” 

“I don’t see it in

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Biden will win, polls say. But the stock market is sending a different signal

Biden will win, polls say. But the stock market is sending a different signal

PAUL BRANDUS



a man standing in front of a building


© AFP via Getty Images


With three weeks to go, President Trump’s re-election bid is in trouble. At least that’s what the polls show.

But it’s not what the stock market is signaling. Based on nearly a century’s worth of election-year data, Trump may yet win.

“A rising stock market tends to be a ratification of the present policies being satisfying to the investing public.” — Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivative strategist at BTIG

Here’s the research, and it is compelling: Since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 Index (SPX) of the largest U.S. stocks has risen in the three months prior to a presidential election, the party that controlled the White House won 90% of the time.

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“If you think about it intuitively, it makes sense,” says Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivative strategist for the investment firm BTIG who compiled the data. “Because a rising stock market tends to be a ratification of the present policies being satisfying to the investing public.”

History lines up squarely behind Emanuel. In 1928, for example, President Calvin Coolidge, a Republican, chose to retire, but stocks rose between August and November. It was the last full year of the Roaring ’20s and helped lift the new GOP standard bearer, Herbert Hoover, into the White House.

Four years later, the reverse occurred. The Great Depression, which began in the fall of 1929, dragged down stocks — including between August and November 1932 — and Hoover was crushed by Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt.

In fact, there have been six presidential years since 1928 when the S&P 500 fell in the three months before election day. All six times, the party in the White House lost.

Video: Biden campaign resuming negative ads against President Trump (FOX News)

Biden campaign resuming negative

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What Biden Means for the Stock Market

What Biden Means for the Stock Market

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The S&P 500 is back near a record high, rising in four of the past five sessions. Analysts say that a “blue wave” election, in which Democrats win the presidency and control of Congress, could be good for the stock market. They didn’t always have that view.

First, they fretted about taxes. When Joe Biden emerged as the likely Democratic presidential nominee, Wall Street focused on the leftward lean of his platform — including a $700 billion infrastructure plan, $775 billion child-care plan and $2 trillion climate plan — and, especially, his plan to raise taxes.

• The potential rollback of Trump tax breaks was “top of mind of equity market investors,” Morgan Stanley analysts noted in June. They warned that “deficit spending and redistribution” under a Democrat sweep might dampen corporate confidence, investment and employment.

Then, stimulus talks failed — and coronavirus cases rose. When Congress passed the CARES Act in March, D.C. insiders dubbed it “triage,” assuming there would soon be a second bill. But talks on a second stimulus package have stalled, with Democrats pushing for an omnibus plan and Republicans favoring stand-alone measures to limit deficit spending. As the economic recovery began to sputter and coronavirus cases rose across the country, analysts began to discuss the possibility of Democratic control in a different way.

• “All else equal, such a blue wave would likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote this month, pointing to the likelihood of a giant stimulus package shortly after the inauguration in January and longer-term spending increases after that. The effect of such measures would “at least match” the drag from tax increases, they wrote.

And President Trump refused

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Biden leads in Arizona as suburban women abandon Trump

Biden leads in Arizona as suburban women abandon Trump

Call it their fail-safe option.

If Joe Biden were to lose a critical Midwest battleground like Michigan or Wisconsin, Democrats are counting on Arizona to bail him out, acting as a potential replacement state with enough electoral power to prevent President Donald Trump’s re-election.

After Trump carried this emerging swing state by just over 91,000 votes four years ago, some Republicans are now already bracing for a defeat that could “cut deeply down the ballot,” as one GOP aide in state government put it.

With early voting now underway and Democrats consistently tracking Biden with a 3-to-4 point lead, the Trump campaign is planning additional visits here from the ticket as soon as this week, attempting to salvage a reliably red bastion as suburban women are turning away from the GOP in droves.

“It’s fairly close. If anybody has a slight polling advantage it would be Biden,” said Constantin Querard, a conservative political consultant in Phoenix, “but the Trump campaign is much stronger on the ground.”

While the Trump operation has maintained a vigorous door-knocking presence throughout most of the pandemic, a battery of Democratic groups have been working online to mobilize the two constituencies most crucial to their success: Latinos — which now make up 24 percent of eligible voters here — and moderate Republican women.

Bettina Nava, a former state director for Sen. John McCain, falls into both groups. The lifelong Republican welled up in tears during a recent zoom call with the Arizona Democratic Party as she spoke about her decision to endorse Biden due to Trump’s divisiveness.

“I’m following my conscience,” she said. “Under a Biden-Harris ticket, we can return to those civil conversations about the great debates of our time. That’s what we need to be doing. You notice I didn’t say agreement over

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