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Analysis: 2020 is not 2016, but don’t count Trump out yet | US & Canada

Analysis: 2020 is not 2016, but don’t count Trump out yet | US & Canada

Three weeks from election day, Donald Trump is trailing in the polls and some Democrats are plotting for the next four years under a Democratic president. That was the scene in 2016 and it’s shaping up to be the same in 2020, as Joe Biden’s solid, sustained lead in United States polls has increased in the last week.

Not so fast, President Trump’s campaign officials say. They are quick to remind how his candidacy was written off by virtually everyone, including many Republicans, four years ago this week, as he dealt with the fallout from the release of tape filmed behind the scenes of the US TV show Access Hollywood, in which Trump was recorded making vulgar remarks about women. Yet due to a unique political environment and a late-October surprise when the FBI reopened and then quickly closed its investigation into candidate Hillary Clinton’s emails, Trump was able to eke out victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, delivering him an improbable victory.

The world has changed enormously in four years, as has the political situation in which Trump finds himself. Instead of railing against the establishment as an agent of change, Trump is now in charge and is being blamed for mishandling a once-in-a-century pandemic that has rocked the country and has directly affected him, hospitalising him and sidelining him from a week-and-a-half of crucial campaign travel.

That makes the ‘Look what Trump did in 2016’ a poor argument for why he may or may not still have a chance this year.

That being said, despite the massive momentum Biden seems to have and the political corner Trump has painted himself into, there are still small glimmers for Trump and his team, if he can successfully shake things up in these final three weeks.

Biden’s large, consistent lead


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Canada exports and imports fall in August, flag slowing recovery

Canada exports and imports fall in August, flag slowing recovery

By Julie Gordon

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada’s exports and imports both fell in August, hinting that the momentum of the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis could have slowed more than anticipated, data from Statistics Canada showed on Tuesday.

Imports fell 1.2%, while exports were down 1.0%. Canada’s trade deficit, meanwhile, narrowed slightly to C$2.45 billion ($1.85 billion), missing analyst expectations of C$2.0 billion.

Statscan revised July’s trade deficit to C$2.53 billion from an initial C$2.45 billion.

“The slowdown in trade showed up earlier than we had anticipated, and the drop in export volumes suggests that the recovery’s momentum could have slowed more than anticipated in August,” said Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC Economics, in a note.

Lower imports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts drove the import decline, while exports fell after three months of strong gains on lower exports of passenger cars and light trucks, Statscan said.

Imports from Canada’s largest trading partner, the United States, fell 1.6%, while exports to that country were up 1.0% on higher lumber exports. Exports to all countries remained 7% below pre-pandemic levels, while imports remained down 5.1%, Statscan said.

“Overall, the fact that we haven’t fully recovered in the merchandise side is a disappointment,” said Ross Prusakowski, principal economist at Export Development Canada.

Prusakowski noted that some of the export weakness was temporary, pointing to a strike at the Port of Montreal in August that had an impact on shipments, particularly to Europe.

“That’s one area where we think there might be some strength coming back,” Prusakowski said.

Analysts also noted that a July boost caused by shorter seasonal shutdowns at most auto assembly plants did not continue into August, returning trade in that segment to more typical levels.

Still, export levels of passenger cars and light trucks were

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Canada launches new business rent aid program, expands other coronavirus support

Canada launches new business rent aid program, expands other coronavirus support

By Julie Gordon

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada on Friday announced a round of new and enhanced support for businesses impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, including a new rent subsidy program to replace its previous, and much criticized, rent-relief program.

The Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy program will provide direct support to businesses and other organizations that are facing revenue losses, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a news conference. The program will run through June 2021.

The government will also provide “additional, targeted” supports to businesses that are forced by public health order to temporarily close to help curb coronavirus infections, Freeland said.

“As we fight the second wave of COVID-19, public health officials have been imposing new restrictions. That is the right thing to do, but it imposes costs,” Freeland said. “This new targeted support will help businesses get through the lockdowns.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, speaking at the same news conference, said Canada is at a tipping point in the fight against a second wave of the novel coronavirus.

Freeland said the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy program had been extended to June 2021 and that the Canada Emergency Business Account would be expanded to allow for larger, partially-forgivable loans.

Together, the three programs are expected to cost an additional C$19.6 billion ($14.9 billion) through to December 19, 2020.

Trudeau’s Liberal government said in July that the fiscal 2020-2021 deficit would likely hit C$343.2 billion, mostly due to COVID-19 aid, the largest shortfall since World War Two.

Under the previous rent-relief program, which expired at the end of September, landlords had to apply for a forgivable loan that would cover half of a tenant’s rent. The tenant had to pay a quarter of it and the landlord had to absorb the remainder.

It was budgeted at C$2.97 billion. As of

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Bank of Canada head says pandemic response will boost risks from future economic shocks

Bank of Canada head says pandemic response will boost risks from future economic shocks

By Julie Gordon and David Ljunggren

OTTAWA, Oct 8 (Reuters)Bold policy actions taken in response to the coronavirus pandemic were needed but will make Canada’s economy and financial system more vulnerable to economic shocks down the road, the governor of the Bank of Canada said on Thursday.

Tiff Macklem, speaking by video conference to a financial risk management group, said Canada came into the pandemic with a number of vulnerabilities and that it “seems certain” the country would exit with higher levels of government debt.

“As much as a bold policy response was needed, it will inevitably make the economy and financial system more vulnerable to economic shocks down the road,” Macklem said.

“Without the fiscal and monetary policy actions, the economic devastation of the pandemic could have been much, much worse,” he added.

Macklem reiterated that a full recovery from the COVID-19 crisis would take a long time and noted that many risks remain, particularly as a second wave of infections takes hold in parts of Canada.

“Nobody wants to return to lockdown, but a second wave could test our resolve to practice physical distancing and keep the pandemic from spreading uncontrollably again,” he said.

The Canadian dollar held on to modest gains after Macklem’s speech, up 0.1% at 75.52 cents, or 1.3242 to the U.S. dollar.

Macklem also said the Bank of Canada was keeping a close eye on household debt levels and Canada’s housing market, both of which were vulnerabilities coming into the pandemic.

As bank mortgage deferral programs have expired, the vast majority of people have returned to regular payments, he said. The housing market, meanwhile, has not returned to “frothy” conditions seen in 2016, he said.

Macklem said the central bank is watching Canada’s financial system to assess the risk that

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Canada Enterprise News, Market Tendencies, Evaluation & Extra

Canada Enterprise News, Market Tendencies, Evaluation & Extra

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