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Oil Dips Near $40 With IEA Warning of Fragile Market Outlook

Oil Dips Near $40 With IEA Warning of Fragile Market Outlook

(Bloomberg) — Oil slipped near $40 a barrel in New York as the IEA cautioned on a fragile outlook and Russia indicated OPEC+ may stick with its current plans to lift output.

The group’s plans to boost production in January will leave the market in a precarious balance, and potentially unable to handle higher supply from elsewhere or a drop in demand, the International Energy Agency said. Russia’s energy minister said his nation expects to be able to gradually raise production without harming the market.

Though prices edged lower, there were bright spots. A Chinese mega-refiner is snapping up barrels of Middle Eastern crude to feed trial runs of its expanded plant. At the same time India’s refiners have cranked up processing to meet higher demand during a festive period.



graphical user interface: WTI close to 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages


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WTI close to 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages

A lot of traders’ attention is turning to plans by OPEC+ to raise supply next year in line with its agreement earlier this year. While some producers inside the group are said to be having doubts, the United Arab Emirates and now Russia have said that, for the time being, the group will proceed as scheduled. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday urged the alliance to comply with agreed cuts as virus infections rise again.

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“OPEC+ could provide a silver bullet by not tapering cuts at the start of next year as planned,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Stephen Brennock. “But such a proposition will be hard to swallow by some of the group’s members.”

Prices
West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell 0.4% to $40.05 a barrel at 12:10 p.m. London timeBrent for December settlement lost 0.2%, to $42.38

Despite its cautionary outlook, the IEA said that the

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Consumer Confidence Dips, But Republicans Still Notably Optimistic

Consumer Confidence Dips, But Republicans Still Notably Optimistic

As the White House battles a coronavirus outbreak that includes the president being diagnosed with Covid-19, Americans’ overall confidence in the economy has taken a slight dip. But confidence is still holding fairly steady in spite of widespread health concerns about the pandemic.

Overall consumer confidence measured at 52 this week, according to the Ipsos U.S. Consumer Confidence Weekly Tracker. That’s a decrease of 2.6 points from last week.

Ipsos, which surveyed 921 respondents online on Oct. 6 and 7, provided the results exclusively to Forbes Advisor. The survey is conducted weekly to track consumer sentiment over time, using a series of 11 questions to determine whether consumers feel positively or negatively about the current state of the economy and where it looks to be going in the future. 

Each of the subcategories Ipsos tracks to measure overall confidence, including current financial situation, financial outlook, investment confidence and job security confidence, decreased from last week. Only one of them exceeds pre-pandemic levels. 

The expectations index, which measures how respondents view their personal financial situation and local economy, was down 1.5 points this week, but remains nearly two points above its early-March 2020 levels. That number is above the pandemic average by about two points, and above the historical average (since 2002) by more than four points.

A majority of Americans continue to believe that reopening the economy is the right thing to do, with 52% of respondents agreeing the economy will recover quickly once pandemic restrictions are relaxed. Meanwhile, 47% said the economy should be reopened even if the coronavirus isn’t contained—a decrease of two points from last week.

Republicans Consistently More Confident in Economy Than Democrats

During the pandemic, people identifying as Republicans have been the most confident, while Democrats have been the least confident, with as

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