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The US and Europe face rising Covid-19 case numbers as they squander lessons from Asia-Pacific

The US and Europe face rising Covid-19 case numbers as they squander lessons from Asia-Pacific

While the Asia-Pacific region treads water until a coronavirus vaccine is found, the West’s biggest economies are drowning as a second wave firmly establishes itself in Europe.



a group of people standing in front of a crowd: Mandatory Credit: Photo by Top Photo Corporation/Shutterstock (10739563a) Eric Chou performs in concert and invited Ella to be his special guest. Eric Chou in concert, Taipei, Taiwan, China - 09 Aug 2020

© Top Photo Corporation/Shutterstock
Mandatory Credit: Photo by Top Photo Corporation/Shutterstock (10739563a) Eric Chou performs in concert and invited Ella to be his special guest. Eric Chou in concert, Taipei, Taiwan, China – 09 Aug 2020

Europe is now reporting more daily infections than the United States, Brazil, or India — the countries that have been driving the global case count for months — as public apathy grows towards coronavirus guidelines. Several countries are seeing infection rates spiral again after a summer lull that saw measures to contain the virus and travel restrictions relaxed.



a man wearing a suit and tie: US President Donald Trump removes his mask on his return to the White House from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he was treated for coronavirus.

© Win McNamee/Getty Images North America/Getty Images
US President Donald Trump removes his mask on his return to the White House from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he was treated for coronavirus.

In the United Kingdom, for example, questions are being asked about whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to lift the country’s lockdown in June was premature. Northern England’s current high rates of Covid-19 are down to the fact that infections “never dropped as far in the summer as they did in the south,” Jonathan Van-Tam, Britain’s deputy chief medical officer, told a press conference on Monday.



a large crowd of people: Thousands of revelers gathered at an open air water park in the Chinese city of Wuhan, ground zero of the pandemic, for an electronic music festival in August.

© STR/AFP/AFP via Getty Images
Thousands of revelers gathered at an open air water park in the Chinese city of Wuhan, ground zero of the pandemic, for an electronic music festival in August.

It is just the latest problem to beset Britain’s slapdash pandemic response. There are now more patients in hospital with Covid-19 in England than there were in March, when a nationwide lockdown was imposed, according to Johnson and health officials.

France and the Netherlands broke

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What record growth numbers miss about the economic recovery

What record growth numbers miss about the economic recovery

As the economy recovers from the Covid crisis and we approach the November elections, Americans are confused about where the economy is heading. Stock prices are up sharply from their March lows, yet many small businesses and those who lost their jobs are in dire straits. Understanding where we stand in the economic cycle offers valuable context for what otherwise seems irreconcilable, particularly with respect to two key economic metrics: GDP and employment.



a tall building in a city: People wearing masks can be seen in the reflection of an empty retail store window on May 28, 2020 in New York City.

© Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images
People wearing masks can be seen in the reflection of an empty retail store window on May 28, 2020 in New York City.

We’ll likely see record employment and GDP growth right before Election Day, but the harsh reality is that the economy is still far behind where it was before Covid hit, and it will be years before either gets back to pre-Covid levels.

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It’s important to know that both GDP and jobs behave like bouncing balls during recession and recovery. In other words, the greater the drop, the bigger the rebound. Because we’ve recently seen the steepest ever declines in both of these measures, we should also see the fastest revivals on record.

That’s simply par for the course. V-shaped recoveries — at least initially — are normal in the immediate aftermath of deep recessions.

After peaking in February, nonfarm employment had plunged 14.5% by April 2020, a record pace of job losses, with the economy hemorrhaging 22.16 million jobs. Then, with the economy restarting and regaining 11.42 million jobs in five months, job growth rebounded by 8.8% (Chart 1, dark blue line). That’s also one of the strongest paces of job gains on record, even though it still leaves a deficit of 10.74 million jobs — or 7% — well below February’s peak.

These are big numbers that

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