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Is the Coronavirus Vaccine Market Oversaturated?

Is the Coronavirus Vaccine Market Oversaturated?

Stocks of coronavirus vaccine candidate developers have been on fire this year. If you invested in a balanced portfolio consisting of the five most prominent COVID-19 vaccine developers in the beginning of March, your total holdings would be up 164.68% as of Oct. 9. These include Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), Sanofi (NASDAQ: SNY), Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), and AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN). That means a moderate investment of $10,000 would have grown to $26,468 in just seven months, far outperforming the S&P 500‘s 20% in the same period.

In the last leg of the coronavirus vaccine race, investors now face the question of whether there’s enough room for all of the players to succeed. Investors should keep in mind that a coronavirus vaccine can be deemed safe and effective by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and still perform poorly in commercialization. Let’s examine the significant risks faced by all the participants in the COVID-19 vaccine race and find out the best way to invest in this young sector.

Snapshot of a vial labeled "coronavirus vaccine" alongside pills and syringe.

Image source: Getty Images.

Is there too much supply?

Assuming the top nine large-cap and mid-cap biotechs bring their COVID-19 vaccine candidates through clinical trials and earn regularly approval, they will have a combined annual production capacity of up to 8.7 billion doses by the end of next year. Right now, we need between 7.8 billion and 15.6 billion doses of a vaccine (depending on single or double dose requirements) to immunize everyone on the planet against the coronavirus.

Company Progress 2021 Annual Production Capacity Single/Double Dose
Pfizer Phase 2/3; Rolling Regulatory Submission 1.3 billion (with BioNTech) Double
BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) Phase 2/3; Rolling Regulatory Submission 1.3 billion (with Pfizer) Double
CureVac (NASDAQ: CVAC) Phase 1/2 400 million Double
Moderna Phase 3 1 billion
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