Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) has enjoyed an extended rally thanks to headline-grabbing announcements in the past few months. Once lifted in August, the company’s revenue outlook needs a further upgrade per our analysis of historical data in light of ongoing product launches. JAZZ’s liquidity is robust enough to weather the effect of declining cash flows even as the management expects the margins to come under pressure amid the ongoing product launches and clinical trials.
As generics make the market entry rivaling the company’s leading drug Xyrem, a new product launch is underway, targeting a swift conversion of the existing patient base. Meanwhile, moves are afoot to bolster the oncology franchise highlighting the attempts at revenue diversification. Our EBITDA forecasts for the year beat the consensus estimates, and with the current forward EV/EBITDA multiple, it indicates a modest undervaluation. Yet, despite a series of catalysts ahead, JAZZ continues to underperform the market on a YTD (year-to-date) basis, encouraging us to raise its outlook to a ‘Buy’.
Catalysts Spark a Rally
After the emerging competition and a failed late-stage clinical trial darkened its prospects in the first few months of the year, Jazz Pharmaceuticals has made a remarkable turnaround lately, forcing the management to roll back the dreary outlook they set earlier. Thanks to a series of catalysts and the upgraded guidance, the stock had made a swift comeback gaining ~41.3% in the past six months, outperforming the ~26.1% rise in the NBI (NASDAQ Biotechnology Index). In June, FDA signed off JAZZ’s Zepzelca (lurbinectedin) for adults with relapsed metastatic SCLC (small cell lung cancer) on or after platinum-based chemotherapy. One of the two types of lung cancers, SCLC has a poorer prognosis compared to NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer), highlighting the importance of the development for an indication